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Forecasts come from the National Weather Service's own computer models, and current conditions from the nearest reporting weather station. Both are served through the weather API. A forecast is guidance, not a warning, and anything the Weather Service has actually issued is on the live map.
Afton sits at 44.8988°N, 92.8191°W in Washington County, Minnesota. The forecast above is drawn for that point from the National Weather Service's own computer models: a seven-day outlook, and a finer-grained one covering the next eighteen hours where it reaches, and the radar and alert panels show what the Weather Service has out over the area right now.
Place data from the US Census Bureau. Coordinates are the Census internal point for Afton, and the forecast is for that location, not for every address inside the city limits, and a large city can have real weather differences from one side to the other.
The nearest Doppler radar is KMPX (Minneapolis, MN), 37 miles to the W. A WSR-88D's lowest routine scan sits half a degree above horizontal, and the earth curves away beneath it, so by the time that beam reaches Afton its centre is about 2,400 ft above ground. That is comfortably inside the useful range. The lowest scan passes low enough over Afton to show rotation in the part of a storm where tornadoes actually form. Afton is closer to its radar than 61% of US cities.
The closest instrument actually measuring the air is K21D · Lake Elmo Arpt on the ASOS/AWOS network, 7.2 miles away. Near enough to be representative on most days, though a summer thunderstorm can soak one and miss the other entirely.
Beam height is the standard 4/3-earth approximation for the 0.5° scan and assumes normal refraction; it is where the centre of the beam is, not its edges, and unusual temperature profiles bend it. Radar siting from the NWS WSR-88D network, station positions from the Minnesota observing network as of this build.
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